EUR/USD – Technical Analysis (H1)

The pair is currently resting on critically important support from the medium-term trendline (1.1515–1.1520 zone). A decisive break below this level would officially terminate the uptrend and open the door for a sharp decline toward 1.1470 and subsequently 1.1400. That said, today’s release of the highly volatile Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data keeps the near-term outcome highly uncertain.

Key Levels:

□ Critical support: 1.1515–1.1520

□ Downside targets: 1.1470 / 1.1400

□ Upside target: 1.1580–1.1600

Primary Scenario:

Range-bound action until the news release, followed by a decline toward 1.1400.

Alternative Scenario:

Rally after the NFP release toward a new high in the 1.1580–1.1600 area.

Analyst Commentary:

Sessions such as today (the first Friday of the calendar month) tend to be the most volatile of the entire month. Exercise caution.